Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Lowry wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 50.4% vs Stamkos 53.4% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 71.2%
Defensive zone
Lowry 78.8%
Neutral zone
Lowry 61.4%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
Lowry
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Lowry
Stamkos
Last 5: Lowry 2-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
3
Lowry
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
0
Lowry
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (893)
55.3% (628)
-2.6%
Power Play
52.8% (72)
55.1% (216)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (215)
40.2% (87)
-0.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Lowry is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (430).
Lowry shoots left. Stamkos is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (659).
Home / Away
Lowry
Stamkos
Home
52.4% (597)
55.5% (499)
Away
48.4% (583)
51.9% (432)
By Period
Lowry
Stamkos
P1
48.5%
50.7%
P2
52.2%
53.8%
P3
50.5%
55.9%
OT
50.0%
87.5%
Final 5 min
49.4%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
50.4%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2023 | 2 | 14:20 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 3 | 18:08 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 3 | 11:48 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 3 | 06:29 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 2 | 12:56 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |