Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 49.1% vs Karlsson 55.6% (-7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 76.5%
Defensive zone
Lowry 73.7%
Neutral zone
Lowry 51.5%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
Lowry
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Lowry
Karlsson
Last 6: Lowry 3-3 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
2
Lowry
Karlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
1
Lowry
Karlsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Karlsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (1,064)
56.3% (739)
-7.0%
Power Play
67.7% (65)
58.6% (181)
+9.1%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (251)
47.2% (53)
-4.6%
On power play, Lowry has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Lowry is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (968).
Lowry shoots left. Karlsson is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
Lowry
Karlsson
Home
50.2% (671)
56.5% (462)
Away
47.8% (709)
56.0% (511)
By Period
Lowry
Karlsson
P1
48.4%
57.1%
P2
50.1%
55.2%
P3
47.8%
56.7%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
43.8%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
49.0%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
56.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 17:20 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 18:59 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 02:36 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 16:59 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 16:54 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 07:52 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |