Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.6% vs 51.3%). Look for Karlsson on offensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 30 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.5% vs Karlsson 51.3% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Karlsson leads 32-31 in 63 meetings
Offensive zone
Karlsson 62.7%
Defensive zone
Lowry 67.9%
Neutral zone
Lowry 56.1%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
Lowry
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
31
-
32
(63 meetings)
31
32
Lowry
Karlsson
Last 10: Lowry 2-8 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
9
21
Lowry
Karlsson
30 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
14
6
Lowry
Karlsson
20 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
8
5
Lowry
Karlsson
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (9,130)
51.8% (7,849)
+1.0%
Power Play
57.1% (455)
54.8% (1,048)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (2,139)
44.2% (1,109)
+0.7%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,740).
Lowry shoots left. Karlsson is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,551).
Home / Away
Lowry
Karlsson
Home
53.5% (5,893)
52.0% (5,090)
Away
49.6% (5,831)
50.5% (4,916)
By Period
Lowry
Karlsson
P1
51.5%
50.3%
P2
51.8%
51.3%
P3
51.4%
52.4%
OT
46.3%
44.9%
Final 5 min
52.9%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.6%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 17:15 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 11:27 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 04:30 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 01:30 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 06:40 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 14:48 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 14:28 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 17:20 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 18:59 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 02:36 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 16:59 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 16:54 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 07:52 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 3 | 11:27 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 3 | 08:26 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 3 | 05:48 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 3 | 01:50 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 07:42 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 1 | 12:47 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 1 | 05:37 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |