Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Karlsson 57.1% (-6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lowry 64.9%
Defensive zone
Lowry 93.8%
Neutral zone
Lowry 81.7%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 71.5%
71.5%
28.5%
Lowry
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Lowry
Karlsson
Last 7: Lowry 1-6 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
5
Lowry
Karlsson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Karlsson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
1
Lowry
Karlsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (933)
58.6% (597)
-4.9%
Power Play
60.7% (28)
57.9% (57)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (227)
51.9% (52)
-9.2%
On penalty kill, Karlsson has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Lowry is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (840).
Lowry shoots left. Karlsson is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (467).
Home / Away
Lowry
Karlsson
Home
53.0% (583)
59.6% (344)
Away
50.6% (605)
56.6% (362)
By Period
Lowry
Karlsson
P1
52.1%
53.1%
P2
51.8%
62.1%
P3
52.3%
60.1%
OT
25.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.9%
61.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.8%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 17:15 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 11:27 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 04:30 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 01:30 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 06:40 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 14:48 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 14:28 | Neutral | William Karlsson |