Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.8% vs 51.2%). Lowry wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Johnston 51.0% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Johnston leads 8-8 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Johnston 63.2%
Defensive zone
Lowry 69.0%
Neutral zone
Lowry 54.0%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
Lowry
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
8
(16 meetings)
8
8
Lowry
Johnston
Last 10: Lowry 5-5 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Lowry
Johnston
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Lowry
Johnston
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Lowry
Johnston
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (933)
52.6% (696)
+1.1%
Power Play
60.7% (28)
52.3% (88)
+8.4%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (227)
42.4% (125)
+0.3%
On power play, Lowry has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Lowry is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (348).
Lowry shoots left. Johnston is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (705).
Home / Away
Lowry
Johnston
Home
53.0% (583)
52.8% (458)
Away
50.6% (605)
49.4% (451)
By Period
Lowry
Johnston
P1
52.1%
48.9%
P2
51.8%
52.3%
P3
52.3%
51.4%
OT
25.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
53.9%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.8%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 11:04 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 00:41 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 15:06 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 08:06 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 05:05 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 04:59 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 05:25 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 00:17 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 3 | 18:30 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 1 | 18:36 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 13:02 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |