Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on defensive-zone draws (58% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.5% vs Johnston 49.1% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Johnston leads 17-15 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Johnston 66.0%
Defensive zone
Lowry 64.3%
Neutral zone
Johnston 52.8%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 51.8%
48.2%
51.8%
Lowry
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
17
(32 meetings)
15
17
Lowry
Johnston
Last 10: Lowry 2-8 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
7
6
Lowry
Johnston
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
5
7
Lowry
Johnston
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
3
4
Lowry
Johnston
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (9,130)
49.3% (2,189)
+3.5%
Power Play
57.1% (455)
52.6% (173)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (2,139)
44.7% (237)
+0.2%
On power play, Lowry has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Lowry is 52.2% vs right-shot opponents (3,984).
Lowry shoots left. Johnston is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,967).
Home / Away
Lowry
Johnston
Home
53.5% (5,893)
49.2% (1,319)
Away
49.6% (5,831)
49.0% (1,280)
By Period
Lowry
Johnston
P1
51.5%
50.1%
P2
51.8%
48.3%
P3
51.4%
48.8%
OT
46.3%
51.6%
Final 5 min
52.9%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.6%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 14:05 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 10:26 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 06:30 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 18:52 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 11:04 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 00:41 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 15:06 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 08:06 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 05:05 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 04:59 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 05:25 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 00:17 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 3 | 18:30 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 1 | 18:36 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 13:02 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 03:31 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 13:16 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 05:48 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |