Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Lowry wins 60.4% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.4% vs Johnston 48.5% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnston 84.5%
Defensive zone
Johnston 64.0%
Neutral zone
Johnston 69.8%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 70.4%
29.6%
70.4%
Lowry
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Lowry
Johnston
Last 5: Lowry 0-5 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
1
Lowry
Johnston
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
2
Lowry
Johnston
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
2
Lowry
Johnston
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (675)
47.8% (623)
+7.6%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
50.8% (63)
+32.5%
Penalty Kill
40.4% (89)
51.4% (35)
-11.0%
On power play, Lowry has a +32.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Lowry is 60.4% vs right-shot opponents (227).
Lowry shoots left. Johnston is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (535).
Home / Away
Lowry
Johnston
Home
54.5% (402)
47.6% (351)
Away
53.3% (368)
48.9% (370)
By Period
Lowry
Johnston
P1
52.4%
49.6%
P2
56.0%
47.3%
P3
54.2%
48.0%
OT
40.0%
46.7%
Final 5 min
58.1%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.9%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 14:05 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 10:26 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 06:30 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 18:52 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |