Aleksander Barkov vs Connor McDavid
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Barkov wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.7% vs McDavid 51.0% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barkov 82.1%
Defensive zone
Barkov 71.5%
Neutral zone
Barkov 78.3%
Result
Aleksander Barkov favored at 79.6%
79.6%
20.4%
Barkov
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Barkov
McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
1
0
Barkov
McDavid
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barkov
2
0
Barkov
McDavid
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
56.9% (740)
51.6% (803)
+5.3%
Power Play
63.3% (256)
50.0% (40)
+13.3%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (104)
36.4% (22)
+8.8%
On power play, Barkov has a +13.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Barkov is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (619).
Barkov shoots left. McDavid is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (616).
Home / Away
Barkov
McDavid
Home
57.4% (540)
51.8% (415)
Away
57.1% (560)
50.4% (450)
By Period
Barkov
McDavid
P1
57.6%
47.5%
P2
56.6%
51.6%
P3
56.9%
55.5%
OT
72.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
57.3%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 08:43 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 04:16 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 04:03 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |