Aleksander Barkov vs Connor McDavid
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Barkov on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 24 meetings). Barkov wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 53.0% vs McDavid 47.7% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Barkov leads 33-14 in 47 meetings
Offensive zone
Barkov 91.5%
Defensive zone
Barkov 91.9%
Neutral zone
Barkov 90.2%
Result
Aleksander Barkov favored at 90.9%
90.9%
9.1%
Barkov
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
33
-
14
(47 meetings)
33
14
Barkov
McDavid
Last 10: Barkov 8-2 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
12
3
Barkov
McDavid
15 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Barkov
McDavid
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barkov
17
7
Barkov
McDavid
24 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (10,680)
47.6% (8,248)
+4.8%
Power Play
58.1% (2,623)
52.8% (362)
+5.3%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (1,272)
44.2% (274)
+3.6%
On power play, Barkov has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Barkov is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (9,144).
Barkov shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,803).
Home / Away
Barkov
McDavid
Home
53.8% (7,227)
49.3% (4,495)
Away
52.2% (7,348)
46.1% (4,389)
By Period
Barkov
McDavid
P1
52.7%
46.4%
P2
53.4%
48.7%
P3
52.9%
48.3%
OT
53.0%
40.9%
Final 5 min
54.5%
50.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
53.0%
McDavid
54.0%▲
45.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 14:01 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 18:50 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 12:54 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 12:46 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 12:28 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 08:43 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 04:16 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 04:03 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 06:53 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 04:52 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 2 | 14:31 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 1 | 06:29 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 1 | 02:29 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 3 | 18:45 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 3 | 18:04 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 3 | 04:42 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 1 | 15:12 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 1 | 11:50 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |