Aleksander Barkov vs Connor McDavid
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Barkov on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Barkov wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.0% vs McDavid 47.9% (+8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barkov 83.3%
Defensive zone
Barkov 58.2%
Neutral zone
Barkov 70.1%
Result
Aleksander Barkov favored at 68.1%
68.1%
31.9%
Barkov
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Barkov
McDavid
Last 6: Barkov 4-2 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
1
0
Barkov
McDavid
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barkov
3
2
Barkov
McDavid
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (704)
47.7% (715)
+7.8%
Power Play
62.3% (247)
51.9% (52)
+10.4%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (75)
22.2% (9)
+24.5%
On penalty kill, Barkov has a +24.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Barkov is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Barkov shoots left. McDavid is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (494).
Home / Away
Barkov
McDavid
Home
56.4% (550)
47.3% (387)
Away
56.7% (476)
48.1% (389)
By Period
Barkov
McDavid
P1
56.5%
47.6%
P2
55.5%
50.0%
P3
57.9%
45.0%
Final 5 min
58.7%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
56.5%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 14:01 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 18:50 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 12:54 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 12:46 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 12:28 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |