Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +14.1% FO% edge overall. Barkov wins 58.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.4% vs Hayes 43.8% (+14.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barkov 50.9%
Defensive zone
Hayes 56.7%
Neutral zone
Hayes 59.9%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 56.5%
43.5%
56.5%
Barkov
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Barkov
Hayes
Last 5: Barkov 2-3 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
1
0
Barkov
Hayes
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Barkov
Hayes
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
2
Barkov
Hayes
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (870)
42.7% (478)
+14.3%
Power Play
63.8% (210)
42.9% (98)
+20.9%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (172)
45.2% (31)
+3.1%
On power play, Barkov has a +20.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Barkov is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (719).
Barkov shoots left. Hayes is 42.5% vs left-shot opponents (388).
Home / Away
Barkov
Hayes
Home
59.2% (557)
43.5% (232)
Away
55.1% (695)
42.4% (375)
By Period
Barkov
Hayes
P1
56.7%
40.1%
P2
54.8%
44.8%
P3
59.7%
42.4%
OT
55.6%
80.0%
Final 5 min
59.4%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
56.9%
Hayes
32.0%▼
44.5%
42.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2022 | 3 | 16:26 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 3 | 04:00 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 2 | 10:06 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 2 | 05:43 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 1 | 12:07 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |