Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Barkov wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.0% vs Hayes 51.7% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barkov 68.7%
Defensive zone
Hayes 65.9%
Neutral zone
Hayes 57.4%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 61.7%
38.3%
61.7%
Barkov
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Barkov
Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
1
0
Barkov
Hayes
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
1
Barkov
Hayes
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (704)
51.6% (386)
+3.9%
Power Play
62.3% (247)
53.2% (47)
+9.1%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (75)
60.0% (20)
-13.3%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +13.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Barkov is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Barkov shoots left. Hayes is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (300).
Home / Away
Barkov
Hayes
Home
56.4% (550)
50.5% (200)
Away
56.7% (476)
53.4% (253)
By Period
Barkov
Hayes
P1
56.5%
58.8%
P2
55.5%
49.3%
P3
57.9%
48.0%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
58.7%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
56.5%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2025 | 3 | 12:49 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 1 | 12:36 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |