Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (57.3% vs 57.0%). Barkov wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.7% vs Hayes 56.3% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barkov 64.2%
Defensive zone
Hayes 72.1%
Neutral zone
Hayes 57.8%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 59.1%
40.9%
59.1%
Barkov
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Barkov
Hayes
Last 5: Barkov 2-3 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
1
0
Barkov
Hayes
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
2
Barkov
Hayes
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Barkov
Hayes
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
56.9% (740)
56.6% (724)
+0.3%
Power Play
63.3% (256)
57.0% (79)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (104)
65.7% (35)
-20.5%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +20.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Barkov is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (619).
Barkov shoots left. Hayes is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (587).
Home / Away
Barkov
Hayes
Home
57.4% (540)
58.0% (405)
Away
57.1% (560)
56.1% (433)
By Period
Barkov
Hayes
P1
57.6%
54.7%
P2
56.6%
55.7%
P3
56.9%
60.2%
OT
72.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
58.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
57.3%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2024 | 3 | 12:44 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 14:39 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 18:58 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 12:02 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 08:33 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |