Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Barkov on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 10 meetings). Barkov wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 54.5% vs Hayes 49.5% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Barkov leads 21-5 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Barkov 69.3%
Defensive zone
Barkov 93.9%
Neutral zone
Barkov 71.8%
Result
Aleksander Barkov favored at 79.4%
79.4%
20.6%
Barkov
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
5
(26 meetings)
21
5
Barkov
Hayes
Last 10: Barkov 8-2 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
6
3
Barkov
Hayes
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
10
0
Barkov
Hayes
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barkov
5
2
Barkov
Hayes
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (863)
48.5% (557)
+4.6%
Power Play
63.4% (276)
53.3% (107)
+10.1%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (193)
58.3% (12)
-7.5%
On power play, Barkov has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Barkov is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (844).
Barkov shoots left. Hayes is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (439).
Home / Away
Barkov
Hayes
Home
58.1% (627)
50.8% (313)
Away
52.1% (705)
48.2% (363)
By Period
Barkov
Hayes
P1
53.3%
52.3%
P2
55.0%
47.7%
P3
56.0%
48.4%
OT
60.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.5%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
54.9%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 07:51 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 10:14 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 05:29 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 01:46 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2 | 14:51 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2 | 14:48 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2 | 08:43 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2 | 06:10 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2 | 03:44 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 06:15 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 3 | 13:50 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 3 | 11:56 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 3 | 10:08 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 3 | 07:20 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 3 | 05:27 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 2 | 19:38 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 2 | 16:37 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |