Aleksander Barkov vs Nathan MacKinnon
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Barkov on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Barkov wins 59.1% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.0% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (+6.6%)
H2H factor
Barkov leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Barkov 81.5%
Defensive zone
Barkov 66.3%
Neutral zone
Barkov 72.6%
Result
Aleksander Barkov favored at 73.3%
73.3%
26.7%
Barkov
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
5
(15 meetings)
10
5
Barkov
MacKinnon
Last 10: Barkov 7-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
4
0
Barkov
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Barkov
MacKinnon
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barkov
4
3
Barkov
MacKinnon
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (704)
49.2% (1,266)
+6.3%
Power Play
62.3% (247)
54.9% (193)
+7.4%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (75)
49.1% (55)
-2.4%
On power play, Barkov has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Barkov is 59.1% vs right-shot opponents (403).
Barkov shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
Home / Away
Barkov
MacKinnon
Home
56.4% (550)
50.9% (740)
Away
56.7% (476)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Barkov
MacKinnon
P1
56.5%
50.9%
P2
55.5%
51.8%
P3
57.9%
47.1%
OT
50.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
58.7%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
56.5%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2025 | 3 | 18:03 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2025 | 3 | 14:37 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 6, 2025 | 3 | 13:49 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 6, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 16:48 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 09:16 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 07:39 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 09:39 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 07:11 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 17:31 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 16:35 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 16:23 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 09:13 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 03:06 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 00:52 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |