Aleksander Barkov vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Barkov on neutral-zone draws (58% H2H, 64 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 53.0% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Barkov leads 63-50 in 113 meetings
Offensive zone
Barkov 81.0%
Defensive zone
Barkov 78.6%
Neutral zone
Barkov 80.8%
Result
Aleksander Barkov favored at 80.3%
80.3%
19.7%
Barkov
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
63
-
50
(113 meetings)
63
50
Barkov
MacKinnon
Last 10: Barkov 7-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
10
11
Barkov
MacKinnon
21 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
16
12
Barkov
MacKinnon
28 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barkov
37
27
Barkov
MacKinnon
64 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (10,680)
46.1% (11,218)
+6.3%
Power Play
58.1% (2,623)
53.3% (1,412)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (1,272)
42.8% (502)
+5.0%
On even strength, Barkov has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Barkov is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (5,431).
Barkov shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
Home / Away
Barkov
MacKinnon
Home
53.8% (7,227)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
52.2% (7,348)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Barkov
MacKinnon
P1
52.7%
47.4%
P2
53.4%
46.6%
P3
52.9%
46.1%
OT
53.0%
48.4%
Final 5 min
54.5%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
53.0%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2025 | 3 | 18:03 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2025 | 3 | 14:37 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 6, 2025 | 3 | 13:49 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 6, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 16:48 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 09:16 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 07:39 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 09:39 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 07:11 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 17:31 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 16:35 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 16:23 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 09:13 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 03:06 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 00:52 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 06:57 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 00:07 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 17:52 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 08:19 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |