Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Barkov on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Barkov wins 58.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.4% vs Hertl 52.3% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Barkov leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Barkov 66.0%
Defensive zone
Barkov 53.5%
Neutral zone
Hertl 53.4%
Result
Aleksander Barkov favored at 57.5%
57.5%
42.5%
Barkov
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
5
(15 meetings)
10
5
Barkov
Hertl
Last 10: Barkov 7-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
4
3
Barkov
Hertl
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
3
1
Barkov
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barkov
3
1
Barkov
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (870)
51.6% (1,084)
+5.4%
Power Play
63.8% (210)
61.0% (246)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (172)
44.1% (136)
+4.2%
On even strength, Barkov has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Barkov is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (719).
Barkov shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Barkov
Hertl
Home
59.2% (557)
55.2% (696)
Away
55.1% (695)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Barkov
Hertl
P1
56.7%
55.4%
P2
54.8%
54.8%
P3
59.7%
48.9%
OT
55.6%
33.3%
Final 5 min
59.4%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
56.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2022 | 3 | 18:59 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 3 | 18:54 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 3 | 16:13 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 2 | 12:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 2 | 11:11 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 1 | 18:13 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 29, 2022 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 3 | 03:10 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 3 | 00:59 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 2 | 13:45 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 1 | 19:06 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 1 | 15:52 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 1 | 14:35 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 1 | 14:25 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 1 | 00:51 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |