Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.5% vs 55.9%). Barkov wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.0% vs Hertl 55.4% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barkov 55.1%
Defensive zone
Barkov 51.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 52.8%
Result
Aleksander Barkov favored at 51.1%
51.1%
48.9%
Barkov
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Barkov
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Barkov
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (704)
54.1% (717)
+1.4%
Power Play
62.3% (247)
61.9% (210)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (75)
58.1% (31)
-11.4%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Barkov is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Barkov shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Barkov
Hertl
Home
56.4% (550)
58.1% (492)
Away
56.7% (476)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Barkov
Hertl
P1
56.5%
57.1%
P2
55.5%
54.0%
P3
57.9%
56.6%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
58.7%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
56.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2025 | 1 | 19:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |