Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.9% vs 54.8%). Look for Barkov on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Barkov wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 54.5% vs Hertl 54.5% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Barkov leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 77.5%
Defensive zone
Barkov 54.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 61.0%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 55.5%
44.5%
55.5%
Barkov
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Barkov
Hertl
Last 10: Barkov 7-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Barkov
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
7
0
Barkov
Hertl
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Barkov
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (863)
54.1% (1,117)
-1.0%
Power Play
63.4% (276)
59.8% (296)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (193)
34.4% (32)
+16.4%
On penalty kill, Barkov has a +16.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Barkov is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (844).
Barkov shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Barkov
Hertl
Home
58.1% (627)
54.3% (709)
Away
52.1% (705)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Barkov
Hertl
P1
53.3%
51.6%
P2
55.0%
53.6%
P3
56.0%
58.6%
OT
60.9%
45.5%
Final 5 min
55.5%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
54.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2022 | OT | 03:58 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 3 | 15:34 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 3 | 11:01 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 3 | 10:54 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 3 | 10:41 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 3 | 00:30 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 19:52 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 04:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 03:53 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 00:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 1 | 04:11 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |