Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (57.3% vs 57.5%). Look for Barkov on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Barkov wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.7% vs Hertl 56.8% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Barkov leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Barkov 57.1%
Defensive zone
Hertl 69.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 57.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
Barkov
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Barkov
Hertl
Last 10: Barkov 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
2
1
Barkov
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
2
0
Barkov
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Barkov
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.9% (740)
57.0% (718)
-0.1%
Power Play
63.3% (256)
64.9% (188)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (104)
44.2% (77)
+1.0%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Barkov is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (619).
Barkov shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Barkov
Hertl
Home
57.4% (540)
59.2% (463)
Away
57.1% (560)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Barkov
Hertl
P1
57.6%
56.3%
P2
56.6%
55.4%
P3
56.9%
60.5%
OT
72.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
57.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2023 | 3 | 17:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 3 | 11:09 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 3 | 08:14 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 2 | 19:47 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 2 | 17:29 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 2 | 17:20 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 2 | 09:27 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |