Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Tuch wins 41.2% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tuch 46.9% vs Larkin 54.1% (-11.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tuch 64.4%
Defensive zone
Larkin 59.6%
Neutral zone
Tuch 60.6%
Result
Alex Tuch favored at 60.6%
60.6%
39.4%
Tuch
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Tuch
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Tuch
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tuch
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (59)
53.6% (886)
-9.5%
Power Play
40.0% (10)
59.3% (317)
-19.3%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
48.7% (152)
-15.4%
On power play, Larkin has a +19.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Tuch is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (68).
Tuch shoots right. Larkin is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Home / Away
Tuch
Larkin
Home
46.9% (32)
56.6% (700)
Away
39.5% (43)
52.1% (655)
By Period
Tuch
Larkin
P1
56.3%
55.4%
P2
35.5%
54.7%
P3
27.3%
52.7%
OT
0.0%
59.1%
Final 5 min
57.9%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tuch
42.0%▲
40.0%
42.7%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2022 | 1 | 01:20 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |