Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +10.0% FO% edge overall. Tuch wins 37.2% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tuch 47.0% vs Larkin 52.4% (-10.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 65.8%
Defensive zone
Larkin 80.4%
Neutral zone
Larkin 65.7%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 65.8%
34.2%
65.8%
Tuch
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Tuch
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tuch
1
0
Tuch
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tuch
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (54)
51.7% (878)
-5.4%
Power Play
33.3% (3)
58.5% (246)
-25.2%
Penalty Kill
27.3% (11)
48.2% (166)
-20.9%
On power play, Larkin has a +25.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Tuch is 37.2% vs left-shot opponents (43).
Tuch shoots right. Larkin is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (451).
Home / Away
Tuch
Larkin
Home
48.5% (33)
52.4% (647)
Away
37.1% (35)
52.7% (643)
By Period
Tuch
Larkin
P1
33.3%
52.2%
P2
46.2%
53.1%
P3
52.9%
51.7%
OT
25.0%
61.3%
Final 5 min
41.7%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tuch
42.0%▲
40.0%
42.6%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2025 | 1 | 01:39 | Offensive | Alex Tuch |