Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +15.4% FO% edge overall. Tuch wins 34.5% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tuch 44.9% vs Larkin 55.0% (-15.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 57.0%
Defensive zone
Larkin 61.7%
Neutral zone
Larkin 56.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 57.0%
43.0%
57.0%
Tuch
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Tuch
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tuch
Larkin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tuch
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
41.5% (65)
55.9% (943)
-14.4%
Power Play
16.7% (6)
57.4% (244)
-40.7%
Penalty Kill
41.2% (34)
46.2% (106)
-5.0%
On power play, Larkin has a +40.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Tuch is 34.5% vs left-shot opponents (87).
Tuch shoots right. Larkin is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (468).
Home / Away
Tuch
Larkin
Home
34.8% (46)
56.0% (654)
Away
44.1% (59)
54.8% (639)
By Period
Tuch
Larkin
P1
48.6%
54.4%
P2
43.9%
55.9%
P3
25.0%
55.2%
OT
0.0%
64.0%
Final 5 min
40.0%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tuch
42.0%▲
40.0%
40.0%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2024 | 2 | 19:12 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 1 | 14:30 | Offensive | Alex Tuch |