Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +12.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Tuch wins 38.2% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tuch 41.5% vs Larkin 52.7% (-12.2%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Tuch 72.6%
Defensive zone
Larkin 58.1%
Neutral zone
Tuch 60.4%
Result
Alex Tuch favored at 59.5%
59.5%
40.5%
Tuch
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
8
(14 meetings)
6
8
Tuch
Larkin
Last 10: Tuch 4-6 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tuch
3
2
Tuch
Larkin
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Tuch
Larkin
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
4
Tuch
Larkin
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tuch
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
38.7% (481)
51.7% (9,019)
-13.0%
Power Play
43.1% (204)
58.5% (2,125)
-15.4%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (111)
50.2% (1,122)
-7.0%
On power play, Larkin has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Tuch is 38.2% vs left-shot opponents (641).
Tuch shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Home / Away
Tuch
Larkin
Home
42.1% (394)
54.0% (6,238)
Away
38.8% (402)
51.3% (6,028)
By Period
Tuch
Larkin
P1
44.7%
52.7%
P2
40.6%
53.1%
P3
36.0%
52.1%
OT
27.3%
58.4%
Final 5 min
39.0%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tuch
42.0%▲
40.0%
40.5%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2025 | 1 | 01:39 | Offensive | Alex Tuch |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 2 | 19:53 | Defensive | Alex Tuch |
| Dec 9, 2024 | 3 | 05:50 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 08:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 18:53 | Defensive | Alex Tuch |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 14:46 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 1 | 13:52 | Neutral | Alex Tuch |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 2 | 19:12 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 1 | 14:30 | Offensive | Alex Tuch |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 1 | 01:20 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 03:14 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 8, 2018 | 2 | 01:45 | Offensive | Alex Tuch |