Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Tuch wins 41.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tuch 47.8% vs O'Reilly 54.7% (-11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tuch 53.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 58.4%
Neutral zone
Tuch 54.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 50.8%
49.2%
50.8%
Tuch
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Tuch
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tuch
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Tuch
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tuch
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (48)
54.6% (669)
-6.7%
Power Play
50.0% (2)
57.3% (171)
-7.3%
Penalty Kill
14.3% (7)
56.3% (87)
-42.0%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +42.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Tuch is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (34).
Tuch shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (397).
Home / Away
Tuch
O'Reilly
Home
50.0% (32)
56.4% (486)
Away
36.0% (25)
54.0% (441)
By Period
Tuch
O'Reilly
P1
36.8%
55.3%
P2
47.8%
53.4%
P3
53.8%
56.9%
OT
0.0%
55.0%
Final 5 min
41.7%
57.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tuch
44.0%▲
41.5%
43.9%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 19:02 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 14:05 | Offensive | Alex Tuch |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 09:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |