Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +13.9% FO% edge overall. Tuch wins 34.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tuch 44.9% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-13.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 57.9%
Defensive zone
Tuch 62.7%
Neutral zone
Tuch 52.6%
Result
Alex Tuch favored at 62.7%
62.7%
37.3%
Tuch
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Tuch
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Tuch
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tuch
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
41.5% (65)
55.0% (1,084)
-13.5%
Power Play
16.7% (6)
56.8% (303)
-40.1%
Penalty Kill
41.2% (34)
40.3% (149)
+0.9%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +40.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Tuch is 34.5% vs left-shot opponents (87).
Tuch shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (555).
Home / Away
Tuch
O'Reilly
Home
34.8% (46)
54.8% (759)
Away
44.1% (59)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Tuch
O'Reilly
P1
48.6%
55.3%
P2
43.9%
51.9%
P3
25.0%
54.2%
OT
0.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
40.0%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tuch
42.0%▲
40.0%
40.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3 | 08:50 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |