Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +15.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 10 meetings). Tuch wins 38.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tuch 41.5% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-15.5%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 13-4 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Tuch 92.3%
Defensive zone
Tuch 86.0%
Neutral zone
Tuch 95.0%
Result
Alex Tuch favored at 88.9%
88.9%
11.1%
Tuch
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
13
(17 meetings)
4
13
Tuch
O'Reilly
Last 10: Tuch 2-8 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tuch
4
1
Tuch
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
10
Tuch
O'Reilly
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Tuch
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tuch
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
38.7% (481)
56.2% (15,260)
-17.5%
Power Play
43.1% (204)
58.8% (3,445)
-15.7%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (111)
51.4% (2,811)
-8.2%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +17.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Tuch is 38.2% vs left-shot opponents (641).
Tuch shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
Home / Away
Tuch
O'Reilly
Home
42.1% (394)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
38.8% (402)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Tuch
O'Reilly
P1
44.7%
55.6%
P2
40.6%
57.0%
P3
36.0%
55.1%
OT
27.3%
62.2%
Final 5 min
39.0%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tuch
42.0%▲
40.0%
40.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 19:02 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 14:05 | Offensive | Alex Tuch |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 09:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3 | 08:50 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 13:45 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 12, 2021 | 3 | 08:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 26, 2021 | 2 | 15:44 | Offensive | Alex Tuch |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 3 | 11:45 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 1 | 04:40 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2018 | 3 | 16:03 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2018 | 2 | 07:33 | Offensive | Alex Tuch |
| Nov 16, 2018 | 1 | 16:57 | Offensive | Alex Tuch |
| Nov 16, 2018 | 1 | 08:24 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 2 | 11:31 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 10, 2018 | 3 | 19:46 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 10, 2018 | 3 | 17:46 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 17, 2017 | 3 | 07:51 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |