Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +13.1% FO% edge overall. Tuch wins 41.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tuch 46.9% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-13.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tuch 70.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 71.3%
Neutral zone
Tuch 58.1%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 71.3%
28.7%
71.3%
Tuch
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Tuch
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Tuch
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tuch
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (59)
56.1% (690)
-12.0%
Power Play
40.0% (10)
64.6% (96)
-24.6%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
45.9% (109)
-12.6%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +24.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Tuch is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (68).
Tuch shoots right. O'Reilly is 56.5% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Home / Away
Tuch
O'Reilly
Home
46.9% (32)
58.3% (408)
Away
39.5% (43)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Tuch
O'Reilly
P1
56.3%
57.7%
P2
35.5%
54.8%
P3
27.3%
55.2%
OT
0.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
57.9%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tuch
42.0%▲
40.0%
42.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 13:45 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |