Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Kerfoot wins 42.6% vs right-shot opponents — Ryan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kerfoot 43.1% vs Ryan 51.5% (-11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 70.2%
Defensive zone
Ryan 51.5%
Neutral zone
Ryan 68.4%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 65.0%
35.0%
65.0%
Kerfoot
Ryan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Kerfoot
Ryan
Last 5: Kerfoot 3-2 Ryan
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kerfoot
1
0
Kerfoot
Ryan
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Kerfoot
Ryan
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kerfoot
Ryan
Edge
Even Strength
41.3% (252)
54.3% (245)
-13.0%
Power Play
45.5% (11)
37.5% (8)
+8.0%
Penalty Kill
36.6% (41)
41.5% (41)
-4.9%
On even strength, Ryan has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ryan shoots right. Kerfoot is 42.6% vs right-shot opponents (122).
Kerfoot shoots left. Ryan is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (214).
Home / Away
Kerfoot
Ryan
Home
40.3% (139)
50.9% (167)
Away
41.2% (165)
53.5% (127)
By Period
Kerfoot
Ryan
P1
36.8%
44.0%
P2
42.1%
61.7%
P3
44.6%
50.5%
Final 5 min
46.2%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kerfoot
52.0%▼
53.5%
40.8%
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2021 | 2 | 12:58 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Apr 5, 2021 | 3 | 07:13 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Apr 5, 2021 | 3 | 04:17 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 5, 2021 | 1 | 10:42 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 1 | 14:39 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |