Scouting Report
Alexander Kerfoot holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hughes on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Kerfoot wins 45.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hughes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kerfoot 47.5% vs Hughes 38.6% (+10.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 77.6%
Defensive zone
Kerfoot 62.0%
Neutral zone
Hughes 57.5%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 57.5%
42.5%
57.5%
Kerfoot
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Kerfoot
Hughes
Last 5: Kerfoot 2-3 Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
3
Kerfoot
Hughes
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kerfoot
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (372)
35.6% (362)
+11.7%
Power Play
46.4% (28)
38.5% (91)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
33.3% (9)
-4.7%
On even strength, Kerfoot has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Kerfoot is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (280).
Kerfoot shoots left. Hughes is 35.0% vs left-shot opponents (277).
Home / Away
Kerfoot
Hughes
Home
53.2% (216)
37.6% (255)
Away
39.8% (191)
34.3% (207)
By Period
Kerfoot
Hughes
P1
43.2%
28.5%
P2
46.6%
39.2%
P3
51.0%
40.8%
OT
20.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.7%
39.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kerfoot
52.0%▼
53.5%
46.9%
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2019 | 3 | 08:15 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 2 | 15:47 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 2 | 15:39 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 1 | 16:56 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 1 | 01:23 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |