Alexander Kerfoot vs Nathan MacKinnon
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Alexander Kerfoot holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kerfoot 48.0% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 57.0%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 56.3%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 56.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 56.7%
43.3%
56.7%
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
Last 9: Kerfoot 3-6 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
4
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (595)
45.5% (1,190)
+4.9%
Power Play
45.2% (124)
56.4% (94)
-11.2%
Penalty Kill
39.2% (143)
40.0% (30)
-0.8%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Kerfoot is 48.2% vs right-shot opponents (334).
Kerfoot shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
Home / Away
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
Home
51.4% (467)
47.8% (670)
Away
43.5% (395)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
P1
49.1%
45.3%
P2
42.4%
48.5%
P3
52.7%
45.0%
OT
25.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.8%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kerfoot
52.0%▼
53.5%
47.8%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2024 | 1 | 10:33 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 11:40 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 06:31 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 09:49 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 03:17 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 09:39 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 05:25 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 03:35 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 18:08 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |