Alexander Kerfoot vs Nathan MacKinnon
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Alexander Kerfoot holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kerfoot on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kerfoot 52.0% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 57.9%
Defensive zone
Kerfoot 77.4%
Neutral zone
Kerfoot 66.0%
Result
Alexander Kerfoot favored at 61.3%
61.3%
38.7%
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
Last 8: Kerfoot 5-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kerfoot
2
1
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kerfoot
2
1
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (356)
49.2% (1,266)
+3.9%
Power Play
62.5% (24)
54.9% (193)
+7.6%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (114)
49.1% (55)
-0.9%
On power play, Kerfoot has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Kerfoot is 52.9% vs right-shot opponents (223).
Kerfoot shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
Home / Away
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
Home
57.4% (235)
50.9% (740)
Away
47.9% (259)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
P1
53.2%
50.9%
P2
53.3%
51.8%
P3
50.9%
47.1%
Final 5 min
51.8%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kerfoot
52.0%▼
53.5%
52.4%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2024 | 2 | 01:14 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 1 | 14:27 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 15:38 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2 | 02:55 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2 | 02:51 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 08:05 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 07:36 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |