Alexander Kerfoot vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.7% vs 46.8%). Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (56% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kerfoot 47.8% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 12-9 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 59.4%
Defensive zone
Kerfoot 51.2%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 53.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 53.9%
46.1%
53.9%
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
12
(21 meetings)
9
12
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
Last 10: Kerfoot 6-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
4
5
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
4
5
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (2,831)
46.1% (11,218)
+2.6%
Power Play
48.7% (265)
53.3% (1,412)
-4.6%
Penalty Kill
39.8% (389)
42.8% (502)
-3.0%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Kerfoot is 49.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,375).
Kerfoot shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
Home / Away
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
Home
51.0% (1,786)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
44.3% (1,699)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
P1
47.2%
47.4%
P2
46.0%
46.6%
P3
50.4%
46.1%
OT
29.4%
48.4%
Final 5 min
48.9%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kerfoot
52.0%▼
53.5%
47.7%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 11:46 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 04:24 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 2 | 01:14 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 1 | 14:27 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 15:38 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2 | 02:55 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2 | 02:51 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 08:05 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 07:36 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Feb 18, 2024 | 1 | 10:33 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 11:40 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 06:31 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 09:49 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 03:17 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 09:39 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 05:25 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 03:35 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 18:08 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 04:23 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |