Alexander Kerfoot vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kerfoot 49.5% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 78.7%
Defensive zone
Kerfoot 65.8%
Neutral zone
Kerfoot 54.9%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 56.5%
43.5%
56.5%
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kerfoot
1
0
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (97)
50.0% (992)
+2.6%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
64.9% (148)
+35.1%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (16)
34.4% (32)
-9.4%
On power play, Kerfoot has a +35.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Kerfoot is 49.1% vs right-shot opponents (55).
Kerfoot shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
Home
39.2% (51)
53.3% (591)
Away
57.1% (63)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
P1
51.1%
49.9%
P2
51.6%
53.2%
P3
44.4%
50.8%
Final 5 min
55.0%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kerfoot
52.0%▼
53.5%
49.1%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 11:46 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 04:24 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |