Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kerfoot 49.5% vs Hertl 57.2% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 59.7%
Defensive zone
Kerfoot 84.5%
Neutral zone
Kerfoot 70.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 59.7%
40.3%
59.7%
Kerfoot
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Kerfoot
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Kerfoot
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kerfoot
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (97)
58.1% (823)
-5.5%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
56.2% (265)
+43.8%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (16)
62.9% (35)
-37.9%
On power play, Kerfoot has a +43.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Kerfoot is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (59).
Kerfoot shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Kerfoot
Hertl
Home
39.2% (51)
59.7% (561)
Away
57.1% (63)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Kerfoot
Hertl
P1
51.1%
51.6%
P2
51.6%
63.8%
P3
44.4%
58.6%
Final 5 min
55.0%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kerfoot
52.0%▼
53.5%
49.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 08:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 01:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |