Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Wennberg wins 46.6% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wennberg 46.3% vs Paul 53.6% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wennberg 69.8%
Defensive zone
Wennberg 67.9%
Neutral zone
Wennberg 67.4%
Result
Alexander Wennberg favored at 68.7%
68.7%
31.3%
Wennberg
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Wennberg
Paul
Last 9: Wennberg 3-6 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
3
Wennberg
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
2
3
Wennberg
Paul
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wennberg
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (778)
53.8% (318)
-8.0%
Power Play
52.7% (239)
61.4% (57)
-8.7%
Penalty Kill
37.3% (169)
50.0% (32)
-12.7%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Wennberg is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (832).
Wennberg shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (297).
Home / Away
Wennberg
Paul
Home
47.3% (607)
54.6% (183)
Away
44.6% (579)
54.5% (224)
By Period
Wennberg
Paul
P1
44.5%
57.0%
P2
46.2%
56.2%
P3
47.4%
51.7%
OT
36.4%
44.4%
Final 5 min
45.4%
60.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wennberg
50.0%▼
51.5%
46.0%
Paul
58.0%▲
54.0%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 09:01 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 03:34 | Defensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 12:57 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 10:52 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 06:10 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 06:35 | Defensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 00:33 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 17:44 | Offensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 19:03 | Defensive | Nick Paul |