Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Wennberg wins 46.6% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wennberg 46.3% vs Paul 53.3% (-8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wennberg 65.9%
Defensive zone
Wennberg 65.7%
Neutral zone
Wennberg 64.8%
Result
Alexander Wennberg favored at 65.8%
65.8%
34.2%
Wennberg
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Wennberg
Paul
Last 9: Wennberg 3-6 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
3
Wennberg
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
2
3
Wennberg
Paul
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wennberg
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (778)
53.2% (327)
-7.4%
Power Play
52.7% (239)
61.4% (57)
-8.7%
Penalty Kill
37.3% (169)
50.0% (32)
-12.7%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Wennberg is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (832).
Wennberg shoots left. Paul is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Home / Away
Wennberg
Paul
Home
47.3% (607)
54.6% (183)
Away
44.6% (579)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Wennberg
Paul
P1
44.5%
56.3%
P2
46.2%
54.8%
P3
47.4%
52.4%
OT
36.4%
44.4%
Final 5 min
45.4%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wennberg
50.0%▼
51.5%
46.0%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 09:01 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 03:34 | Defensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 12:57 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 10:52 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 06:10 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 06:35 | Defensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 00:33 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 17:44 | Offensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 19:03 | Defensive | Nick Paul |