Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Copp 51.8% vs Matthews 53.9% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 28-22 in 50 meetings
Offensive zone
Copp 56.4%
Defensive zone
Copp 74.2%
Neutral zone
Copp 61.7%
Result
Andrew Copp favored at 63.6%
63.6%
36.4%
Copp
Matthews
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
28
(50 meetings)
22
28
Copp
Matthews
Last 10: Copp 6-4 Matthews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
8
9
Copp
Matthews
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
5
10
Copp
Matthews
15 total
Neutral Zone
Even
9
9
Copp
Matthews
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Copp
Matthews
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (5,453)
54.0% (9,298)
-1.6%
Power Play
58.1% (503)
55.5% (530)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (931)
49.8% (482)
-4.5%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Matthews shoots left. Copp is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (4,419).
Copp shoots left. Matthews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (6,605).
Home / Away
Copp
Matthews
Home
52.7% (3,528)
56.3% (5,065)
Away
51.0% (3,359)
51.5% (5,245)
By Period
Copp
Matthews
P1
53.0%
55.5%
P2
51.4%
53.3%
P3
51.4%
52.8%
OT
39.0%
56.6%
Final 5 min
51.5%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Copp
44.0%▼
52.5%
51.9%
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 14:27 | Offensive | Andrew Copp |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 06:13 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 02:46 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 11:55 | Defensive | Andrew Copp |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 03:59 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 03:44 | Offensive | Andrew Copp |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 15:22 | Neutral | Andrew Copp |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 15:08 | Neutral | Andrew Copp |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 15:03 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 07:57 | Defensive | Andrew Copp |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 05:20 | Neutral | Andrew Copp |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 16:11 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 06:24 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 00:22 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 08:09 | Offensive | Andrew Copp |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 06:45 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 3 | 03:18 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 3 | 03:08 | Defensive | Andrew Copp |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 3 | 02:46 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 11:38 | Neutral | Andrew Copp |