Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.7% vs 49.9%). Look for Copp on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Copp wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Copp 50.6% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 58.3%
Defensive zone
Copp 62.6%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 50.9%
Result
Andrew Copp favored at 50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
Copp
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Copp
MacKinnon
Last 5: Copp 4-1 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Copp
3
0
Copp
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Copp
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Copp
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (559)
49.2% (1,266)
+2.0%
Power Play
46.2% (26)
54.9% (193)
-8.7%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (42)
49.1% (55)
-1.5%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Copp is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (212).
Copp shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
Home / Away
Copp
MacKinnon
Home
52.0% (348)
50.9% (740)
Away
49.1% (279)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Copp
MacKinnon
P1
48.4%
50.9%
P2
50.2%
51.8%
P3
53.4%
47.1%
OT
50.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
54.8%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Copp
44.0%▼
52.5%
50.7%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 06:48 | Offensive | Andrew Copp |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 19:08 | Defensive | Andrew Copp |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 16:08 | Offensive | Andrew Copp |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 15:50 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 13:57 | Offensive | Andrew Copp |