Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.9% vs 54.6%). Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Copp 53.5% vs Sturm 53.6% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Copp 73.2%
Defensive zone
Sturm 65.3%
Neutral zone
Copp 54.5%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 55.7%
44.3%
55.7%
Copp
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Copp
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Copp
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Copp
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Copp
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (693)
54.6% (271)
-0.3%
Penalty Kill
45.6% (57)
54.4% (90)
-8.8%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Copp is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (493).
Copp shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Copp
Sturm
Home
54.4% (408)
53.0% (168)
Away
53.4% (410)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Copp
Sturm
P1
53.3%
58.2%
P2
54.1%
53.2%
P3
54.9%
52.3%
OT
20.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
60.8%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Copp
44.0%▼
52.5%
53.9%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 13:13 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 14:20 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 04:35 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 09:15 | Defensive | Andrew Copp |