Scouting Report
Anthony Cirelli holds a +11.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 46.9% vs Mercer 37.5% (+11.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cirelli 81.1%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 93.1%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 78.4%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 88.5%
88.5%
11.5%
Cirelli
Mercer
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Cirelli
Mercer
Last 9: Cirelli 7-2 Mercer
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
1
0
Cirelli
Mercer
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
4
2
Cirelli
Mercer
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
0
Cirelli
Mercer
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (737)
35.4% (548)
+11.0%
Power Play
57.6% (99)
42.9% (35)
+14.7%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (112)
0.0% (7)
+37.5%
On penalty kill, Cirelli has a +37.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Cirelli is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (385).
Cirelli shoots left. Mercer is 34.6% vs left-shot opponents (407).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Mercer
Home
46.7% (478)
39.9% (283)
Away
46.4% (470)
31.3% (307)
By Period
Cirelli
Mercer
P1
46.6%
37.7%
P2
48.6%
32.1%
P3
44.3%
37.7%
OT
44.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
33.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
46.5%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
35.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2022 | 2 | 18:11 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 1 | 16:32 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 1 | 09:46 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 2 | 08:26 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 1 | 04:33 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 3 | 00:57 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 17:28 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 11:53 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 1 | 09:10 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |