Scouting Report
Anthony Cirelli holds a +10.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.1% vs Mercer 41.8% (+10.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 74.3%
Defensive zone
Mercer 60.2%
Neutral zone
Mercer 68.9%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 68.9%
31.1%
68.9%
Cirelli
Mercer
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Cirelli
Mercer
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
0
2
Cirelli
Mercer
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (613)
38.8% (263)
+11.6%
Power Play
69.9% (83)
35.3% (17)
+34.6%
Penalty Kill
36.5% (208)
50.0% (10)
-13.5%
On power play, Cirelli has a +34.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Cirelli is 47.8% vs right-shot opponents (301).
Cirelli shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Mercer
Home
54.2% (395)
34.7% (144)
Away
45.0% (509)
43.2% (146)
By Period
Cirelli
Mercer
P1
50.8%
32.7%
P2
50.0%
42.7%
P3
46.6%
42.2%
Final 5 min
53.4%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.0%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 16:17 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 13:48 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |