Scouting Report
Anthony Cirelli holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.3% vs Mercer 46.3% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 75.2%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 56.3%
Neutral zone
Mercer 58.9%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 59.2%
40.8%
59.2%
Cirelli
Mercer
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Cirelli
Mercer
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
0
1
Cirelli
Mercer
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
1
0
Cirelli
Mercer
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
0
2
Cirelli
Mercer
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (709)
43.6% (241)
+7.3%
Power Play
43.4% (76)
50.0% (14)
-6.6%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (150)
70.0% (10)
-26.0%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +26.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Cirelli is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (374).
Cirelli shoots left. Mercer is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (201).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Mercer
Home
50.6% (494)
41.7% (120)
Away
47.6% (441)
47.6% (145)
By Period
Cirelli
Mercer
P1
52.3%
44.6%
P2
45.4%
45.4%
P3
49.5%
45.2%
OT
62.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
47.5%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.2%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2024 | 2 | 08:15 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 1 | 10:41 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 11:48 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 17:59 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |