Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Cirelli wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 52.5% vs Larkin 54.2% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 84.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 54.7%
Neutral zone
Larkin 58.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 60.1%
39.9%
60.1%
Cirelli
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
0
(8 meetings)
8
0
Cirelli
Larkin
Last 8: Cirelli 8-0 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
1
0
Cirelli
Larkin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
3
0
Cirelli
Larkin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cirelli
4
0
Cirelli
Larkin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (748)
52.9% (1,228)
-0.1%
Power Play
59.4% (32)
63.1% (214)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
51.5% (171)
55.2% (145)
-3.7%
On power play, Larkin has a +3.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Cirelli is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (582).
Cirelli shoots left. Larkin is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,085).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Larkin
Home
54.5% (466)
55.8% (805)
Away
51.1% (485)
53.2% (782)
By Period
Cirelli
Larkin
P1
48.6%
55.2%
P2
54.8%
53.3%
P3
55.8%
55.1%
OT
41.2%
51.7%
Final 5 min
55.4%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
52.8%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2018 | 3 | 18:50 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 4, 2018 | 3 | 14:02 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 3 | 06:27 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 1 | 18:50 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 1 | 07:33 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 1 | 01:40 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |