Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (91% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 50.1% vs Larkin 54.2% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 26-9 in 35 meetings
Offensive zone
Cirelli 80.5%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 76.8%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 76.1%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 77.6%
77.6%
22.4%
Cirelli
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
26
(35 meetings)
9
26
Cirelli
Larkin
Last 10: Cirelli 3-7 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
7
Cirelli
Larkin
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
10
Cirelli
Larkin
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
9
Cirelli
Larkin
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (1,052)
52.6% (1,117)
-2.7%
Power Play
54.9% (82)
60.7% (305)
-5.8%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (158)
55.9% (177)
-7.2%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Cirelli is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (830).
Cirelli shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Larkin
Home
46.7% (649)
54.7% (783)
Away
53.5% (643)
54.3% (816)
By Period
Cirelli
Larkin
P1
50.1%
55.9%
P2
51.1%
56.1%
P3
48.5%
51.1%
OT
64.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
49.7%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
50.1%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 15:41 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 12:10 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 11:51 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 04:12 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 18:18 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 11:49 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 09:47 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 02:56 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 19:22 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 1 | 17:35 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 05:45 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 04:17 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 04:57 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 02:18 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 17:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 14:24 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 12:12 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |