Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on offensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.3% vs Larkin 55.0% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Cirelli leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 77.9%
Defensive zone
Larkin 56.7%
Neutral zone
Larkin 59.3%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 67.8%
32.2%
67.8%
Cirelli
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
6
(14 meetings)
8
6
Cirelli
Larkin
Last 10: Cirelli 6-4 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
4
3
Cirelli
Larkin
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Cirelli
Larkin
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
1
Cirelli
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (709)
55.9% (943)
-5.0%
Power Play
43.4% (76)
57.4% (244)
-14.0%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (150)
46.2% (106)
-2.2%
On power play, Larkin has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Cirelli is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Cirelli shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Larkin
Home
50.6% (494)
56.0% (654)
Away
47.6% (441)
54.8% (639)
By Period
Cirelli
Larkin
P1
52.3%
54.4%
P2
45.4%
55.9%
P3
49.5%
55.2%
OT
62.5%
64.0%
Final 5 min
47.5%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.2%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2024 | 3 | 14:26 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 3 | 07:51 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 2 | 14:46 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 2 | 00:20 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 08:44 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 08:34 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 19:30 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 2 | 15:57 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 2 | 12:49 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 2 | 12:32 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 2 | 10:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 2 | 08:14 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 01:11 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |