Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Cirelli wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 46.9% vs Larkin 52.1% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Cirelli 71.2%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 73.0%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 71.3%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 72.0%
72.0%
28.0%
Cirelli
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
9
(14 meetings)
5
9
Cirelli
Larkin
Last 10: Cirelli 3-7 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cirelli
Larkin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
4
Cirelli
Larkin
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
4
Cirelli
Larkin
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (737)
51.8% (903)
-5.4%
Power Play
57.6% (99)
56.0% (225)
+1.6%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (112)
47.4% (76)
-9.9%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Cirelli is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Cirelli shoots left. Larkin is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (721).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Larkin
Home
46.7% (478)
55.6% (662)
Away
46.4% (470)
48.3% (542)
By Period
Cirelli
Larkin
P1
46.6%
49.9%
P2
48.6%
52.7%
P3
44.3%
53.0%
OT
44.4%
68.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
46.5%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 15:22 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 2 | 15:11 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 1 | 03:46 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 3 | 11:48 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 3 | 08:34 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 3 | 03:28 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 2 | 13:37 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 2 | 06:43 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 2 | 05:56 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 2 | 00:16 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 1 | 00:17 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |