Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.1% vs Sturm 53.6% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cirelli 73.8%
Defensive zone
Sturm 57.2%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 57.3%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 57.2%
42.8%
57.2%
Cirelli
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Cirelli
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Cirelli
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (613)
54.6% (271)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
36.5% (208)
54.4% (90)
-17.9%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +17.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Cirelli is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Cirelli shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Sturm
Home
54.2% (395)
53.0% (168)
Away
45.0% (509)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Cirelli
Sturm
P1
50.8%
58.2%
P2
50.0%
53.2%
P3
46.6%
52.3%
OT
33.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
53.4%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.0%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 14:59 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |