Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.3% vs Sturm 59.0% (-10.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cirelli 71.1%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 62.6%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 69.6%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 68.5%
68.5%
31.5%
Cirelli
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Cirelli
Sturm
Last 5: Cirelli 1-4 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Cirelli
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Cirelli
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Cirelli
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (709)
60.6% (708)
-9.7%
Power Play
43.4% (76)
61.1% (18)
-17.7%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (150)
56.4% (101)
-12.4%
On power play, Sturm has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Cirelli is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Cirelli shoots left. Sturm is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Sturm
Home
50.6% (494)
61.6% (451)
Away
47.6% (441)
58.2% (376)
By Period
Cirelli
Sturm
P1
52.3%
55.9%
P2
45.4%
58.9%
P3
49.5%
64.6%
OT
62.5%
70.6%
Final 5 min
47.5%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.2%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 17:31 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 17:17 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 00:41 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 00:34 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 13:11 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |