Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.3% vs Sturm 56.2% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 11-3 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Cirelli 86.9%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 74.1%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 75.4%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 77.4%
77.4%
22.6%
Cirelli
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
11
(14 meetings)
3
11
Cirelli
Sturm
Last 10: Cirelli 2-8 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Cirelli
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
4
Cirelli
Sturm
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
5
Cirelli
Sturm
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (5,539)
57.1% (2,681)
-7.4%
Power Play
56.7% (561)
61.3% (62)
-4.6%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (1,157)
51.7% (482)
-7.9%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Cirelli is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (4,447).
Cirelli shoots left. Sturm is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,159).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Sturm
Home
49.6% (3,684)
57.3% (1,595)
Away
49.0% (3,573)
55.5% (1,630)
By Period
Cirelli
Sturm
P1
49.7%
56.4%
P2
48.7%
55.1%
P3
49.3%
57.6%
OT
51.6%
60.6%
Final 5 min
50.9%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
56.0%▲
45.0%
49.3%
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
56.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 15:30 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 17:31 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 17:17 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 00:41 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 00:34 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 13:11 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 18:57 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 09:53 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 09:43 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 2 | 16:56 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 2 | 03:56 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 1 | 08:46 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |